There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting parts of Wales, central England, northern and northwestern parts of England, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Scotland late tonight and into the early hours of Wednesday morning.   Whilst other areas (highlighted on the below map) are at risk of seeing some locally heavy thunderstorms the main emphasis is central and northern areas (marked in orange on the map).   Areas of thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of Wales and the W Midlands tonight and these will then track northeastwards late tonight and into the early hours of Wednesday morning. They’re expected to intensify as they track northeastwards.   Frequent lightning, hail, gusty winds and heavy downpours are to be expected. The …

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It is that time again, everyone is asking what this summer will bring. Us British are obsessed with the weather and most, not all, like to see a warm and settled summer. What does this summer have in store? Below I have my annual predictions, last years forecast couldn’t have gone any better, although I feel this years is a lot trickier looking at the signals.   My long range forecasts summarise each month by looking at temperature, pressure and precipitation anomalies, you’ll find for each month expected precipitation and temperature, for example above average, average or below average. Above average in temperature signals warmer and at times hot weather and the same applies for precipitation. Above average precipitation means it …

It has been very miserable of late with low pressure in charge. The good news is that next week the weather starts to settle down and temperatures will start to rise. Nothing significant in terms of high temperatures are expected at the moment but a warm up is on the cards.   Whilst many areas see temperatures respond next week it is the most unlikely areas that will see the highest temperatures next week! Take a look at the maximum video animation below which covers maximum temperatures for the next 10 days. You can find the time at the top right of the video.       Lewis

  Low pressure is expected to dominate our weather next week as the Jetstream fires up, again! We’ll see spells of wet and at times windy weather across much of the United Kingdom throughout next week.   There is perhaps a glimmer of hope that as we head towards next weekend things may just settle down with a ridge of high pressure trying to develop from the south bringing slightly warmer conditions, however it is only a glimmer at the moment. Please find a video animation of sea level pressure and precipitation (rainfall) for next week using our high resolution model data further down this post.   I’m trying very hard to bring a full service back to the general …

We’ve some very active weather to contend with during the next 24 hours or so as the jetstream ramps up and a deepening area of low pressure rattles in from the Atlantic. The strength of the winds will be the initial concern, especially across western areas at first and then as the low pulls away to the ESE tomorrow we see the risk of some severe gales across north sea coasts of northeast England, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and East Anglia. Gusts along coastal areas may reach in excess of 60mph for a time with 50mph+ inland.   Gusts will range from 50-60mph widely across western areas during the early hours of Sunday morning, potentially higher locally and in exposed locations. Below …

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas 2018?   From now until the big day we will be posting a daily update from our long range forecast model. We use the CFSV2 model which is a medium to longer range forecast model. As we nearer Christmas day we’ll start using our shorter range forecasting models and of course have more of an idea with regards to what weather we’ll see this Christmas. You can find the latest update below.   Update #1 – 7th December 2018     Based on the current CFSv2 model output Christmas day 2018 is expected to be a mixed bag. Low pressure is expected to be the dominating feature of our weather as we head …

We continue with the cold theme for many areas over the next 48 hours or so. The wintry weather will become increasingly confined to northern hills through Saturday night and into Sunday. We stay with the cool east to northeasterly flow which will bring further snow showers, even into Monday across the higher ground in the north, however to lower ground precipitation will be falling as rain, hail and at times sleet.   The showers will be heaviest and most frequent across eastern coastal counties of England and Scotland (north sea facing coasts) and we maintain the risk of one or two of these showers being thundery in nature. Whilst many central and western areas remain cold and dry, however …

An area of low pressure is expected to track close to the United Kingdom late Thursday and will head NNE during Friday morning. Whilst strong winds are associated with this area of low pressure, thankfully many areas will escape the strong winds, however many areas will be blustery during Friday. The low tracks NNE late Thursday night bringing severe gale force winds across much of Ireland and Northern Ireland, especially west and southwest coasts. Strong winds (gale force) will also affect the southwest of England and Irish sea coasts in general. Through Friday the strongest winds then extend northwards into parts of W, SW and NW Scotland including the Western Isles of Scotland. The image below shows expected wind gusts …